Putin changes strategy in Ukraine: more openness to peace, but with reservations

US intelligence detects Kremlin reversal: goal now territorial consolidation and a domestic economic recovery. Trump and Zelensky sign rare earths deal after Vatican meeting

According to CNN, citing US and Western intelligence sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin has radically changed his strategy in the war against Ukraine. Having abandoned the idea of a protracted conflict of attrition, the Kremlin would now seem to be focusing on short-term goals, focusing on consolidating control in the occupied areas.

The regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson remain the mainstay of Russian military interest. At the same time, Moscow is showing a growing need to revive an economy weakened by three years of conflict and sanctions, with the aim of achieving internal stability that will allow new geopolitical manoeuvres.

Washington monitors: ‘Putin more inclined to negotiation’
Putin’s attitude is interpreted by the new US administration as an opening, albeit cautious, towards possible peace talks. President Donald Trump and his entourage believe that the Kremlin leader is looking more favourably on a diplomatic understanding than in the past.

However, an underlying mistrust remains in Washington circles. In spite of offers considered ‘generous’ by the United States – which would provide, among other things, Russian maintenance on a large part of the conquered territories – Moscow has not yet given any concrete signs of willingness. Moreover, even if an agreement is reached, analysts do not rule out the risk of future aggression against Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s vision: tactical truce and hybrid instruments
A Western source, also quoted by CNN, reports that the Kremlin would see an improvement in relations with the US as an opportunity for a tactical pause. During this interval, Putin would aim to use military, economic, informational, and political instruments in a coordinated manner to strengthen his position not only in Ukraine, but also on other international fronts.

In this scenario, the diplomatic action and threatening language of the new US administration is an element of pressure. Trump has repeatedly reiterated the possibility of new sanctions against Russia, but has also hinted at glimmers of economic cooperation, a hypothesis that Moscow is watching with interest.

Zelensky and Trump, strategic understanding in Rome
A decisive junction in the redefinition of the balance was the meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump, which took place in the Vatican. The face-to-face meeting in St. Peter’s Basilica paved the way for the signing of an agreement on rare earths, strategic mineral resources for industry and technology.

According to Trump, this agreement could generate more profit than the $350 billion spent by Joe Biden to support the war, making the deal a political and economic success for the new presidency.

A debt-free deal, but with strong constraints for the future
Zelensky obtained significant changes to the text of the agreement, with the inclusion of clauses guaranteeing support for Ukraine’s security, reconstruction, and integration into the global economy. Although there is no explicit mention of military guarantees, the document is an important step towards bilateral strategic cooperation.

‘It is an agreement of parity,’ Zelensky said, stressing that it does not involve new debts for Kiev, but provides for the creation of a fund for investment and modernisation. ‘This partnership is based on right principles, from which both the US and Ukraine can derive real benefits,’ the Ukrainian president concluded, tracing the outcome to the Roman meeting with Trump.

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