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Trump says Iran is “wiped out,” intelligence shows otherwise

Classified briefings to Congress outline a resilient missile capability despite White House claims

“The Iran is wiped out.” That is the assessment repeatedly offered by Donald Trump in recent weeks. But U.S. intelligence paints a sharply different picture—one in which Tehran remains a credible military threat, particularly at sea.

According to information shared with members of Congress in closed-door briefings and reported by The New York Times, Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic corridor through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes.

Intelligence data contradicts White House narrative

The intelligence assessment suggests that Iran retains significant launch capabilities. Mobile missile platforms are reportedly active and can be repositioned within operational zones, allowing flexibility in targeting. Only three missile sites along the strait are currently considered fully inoperative.

Estimates indicate that Tehran still controls about 70% of its mobile launch systems and maintains roughly 70% of its overall missile arsenal. This includes ballistic missiles capable of striking targets across the region, as well as a smaller number of cruise missiles designed for shorter-range land and naval objectives.

Satellite imagery and surveillance data further suggest that Iran has regained access to approximately 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities. These installations are now described as “partially or fully operational,” according to sources cited in the report.

Public statements under scrutiny

The intelligence findings diverge sharply from statements made by Donald Trump, who has described Iran as militarily crippled. On March 9, just ten days after the start of Operation Epic Fury, Trump told CBS that Iran’s missile stockpile had been reduced to “a few units” and that the country had “nothing left militarily.”

A similar assessment was offered by Pete Hegseth, who stated on April 8 at the Pentagon that U.S. and Israeli strikes had “decimated” Iran’s military, rendering it ineffective for years.

Questions over U.S. stockpiles

While the administration has dismissed concerns about American munitions levels, U.S. media reports point to a substantial depletion of key weapons systems during the conflict.

General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a House subcommittee that the United States has “sufficient munitions for current assignments,” even as broader concerns persist.

According to The New York Times, the U.S. military deployed approximately 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles during the war—close to the total number remaining in its arsenal. More than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles were also launched, roughly ten times the Pentagon’s typical annual procurement.

In addition, over 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles were used, equivalent to about two years of production. Replenishing these stockpiles is expected to take years. Defense contractor Lockheed Martin currently produces around 650 Patriot interceptors annually and has announced plans to scale up production to 2,000 units per year.

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