US Intelligence Warns Putin Could Test NATO With Limited Attack

U.S. intelligence assessments reportedly envision scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to a limited ground incursion against a NATO member, potentially between this fall and 2029

US intelligence warns Putin could test NATO with a limited attack in the coming years, according to new assessments cited by The Wall Street Journal, with U.S. intelligence officials examining scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale ground incursion against an allied country.

Until recently, the United States had assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was unlikely to provoke a NATO member while Russian forces remained engaged in the war in Ukraine. That assessment, according to U.S. officials cited by the newspaper, appears to have changed since the beginning of this year.

The officials said Putin is facing increasing pressure in Ukraine while also confronting domestic demands to secure a victory. Ukrainian drone attacks are inflicting growing damage on the Russian military and oil industry, while Russian forces have made limited gains on the battlefield and suffered heavy losses.

Against that backdrop, officials cited by The Wall Street Journal point to a series of incidents as possible signs that Moscow is testing NATO’s resolve. Russian cruise missiles have fallen in Poland, while drones have crossed into Romanian airspace. Another incident has raised concerns in Germany, where a drone carrying explosives was found near a Ukrainian military transport aircraft at Leipzig Airport.

Deutsche Welle described the episode as a possible “hybrid attack” scenario. German airports have recorded hundreds of drone alerts, but authorities regarded this incident as particularly serious. German media reported that state police experts found the highly explosive substances PETN and Semtex, both of which are also used in military applications. The detonator attached to the package had apparently broken, preventing an explosion.

The location of the drone has added to the concerns. It was reportedly discovered next to an aircraft operated by Ukrainian carrier Antonov Airlines. According to reports cited in the account, the aircraft was carrying military ammunition that had recently been transported from France to Leipzig and was intended for shipment to Ukraine.

According to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal, the purpose of a potential Russian attack on NATO while the war in Ukraine continues would be to fracture the alliance.

“The question is how the United States would respond,” said Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, referring to the possibility of a Russian incursion. She said undermining NATO’s credibility and separating the United States from its allies has long been a Russian objective.

U.S. officials cited in the report warned that Putin could become more dangerous if he feels increasingly cornered. The potential threat remains undefined and could take several forms, from a cyberattack against a NATO member or the deployment of armed groups to seize territory to a limited incursion along the alliance’s eastern flank.

According to the U.S. intelligence assessments, a possible Russian move could occur sometime between the fall of this year and 2029.

The warnings come as Russian attacks continue across Ukraine. Over the past 24 hours, at least nine people were killed and 89 injured, according to Ukrainian regional authorities.

Russian forces attacked the Dnipropetrovsk region nearly 80 times, killing five people and injuring 16, according to Governor Oleksandr Hanzha. The attacks involved drones, artillery, guided aerial bombs and missiles.

The Russian military also launched 147 Shahed-type drones against Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine’s Air Force. Air defenses shot down 114 of them. Another 29 drones struck 15 locations, while debris from downed drones fell at four other sites.

In the Kherson region, Russian forces targeted 39 settlements, including the regional capital. One person was killed and 32 were injured, including a child, according to the local military administration.

In the Kharkiv region, two men were killed and 11 people injured in the city of Lozova, while seven others were wounded elsewhere in the region, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.

In Donetsk, one person was killed in Bilenke and five others were injured elsewhere, Governor Vadym Filashkin said. Ten people were wounded in the Zaporizhzhia region, while eight were injured in the Sumy region.

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