Sultan Erdogan’s strategy in Syria: Turkey’s geopolitical weight increases

Without using a single Turkish soldier, Erdogan consolidates his position on the ground

The war in Syria knows a new phase of intensification, with the advance of rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Hts) and their allies. These groups have reached the gates of Homs, conquering strategic areas such as Aleppo and Hama, and putting pressure on the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Turkey, historically an ally of the rebels and supporter of the Syrian National Army (SNA), is consolidating its position in the region without deploying new troops.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed satisfaction with the opposition’s progress, pointing out that the situation may represent an opportunity to influence the balance of power. Turkey, while maintaining ties with Hts through its intelligence services, does not directly control the group, but uses its actions to strengthen its presence in northern Syria.

The escalation offers Ankara the chance to reduce the influence of Russia and Iran, Assad’s allies, in an international context marked by Moscow’s distraction in the war in Ukraine and Tehran’s focus on confrontation with Israel. However, these developments carry significant risks, including a possible new exodus of refugees to Turkey, already home to more than three million Syrians.

As the offensive continues, Ankara intensifies negotiations with Moscow and Tehran, seeking to secure greater control over the southern border and areas occupied by the Syrian Kurds, considered by Erdogan to be a terrorist threat. According to the Wall Street Journal, Erdogan hopes to turn this into an opportunity to consolidate his regional leadership, which will have a major impact on Turkey’s domestic and international politics.

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