US warns of possible Russian provocation to test NATO resolve

Washington alerts Poland to scenarios involving limited strikes, hybrid operations, or controlled incursions designed to probe the Alliance’s response

The United States has warned Poland that Russia may be preparing a military provocation in the coming months aimed at testing NATO’s willingness to defend its allies.

According to the Polish outlet Onet, citing sources close to President Karol Nawrocki and security officials, potential scenarios include targeted missile or drone strikes against critical infrastructure, hybrid or cyber operations, and a limited cross-border incursion.

Such actions could originate from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave or from Belarus, and might be framed as an accident, a navigation error, or an emergency recovery mission in an effort to contain escalation.

Intelligence sources in Warsaw, as reported by The Telegraph, suggest that the Kremlin’s objective would be to trigger a controlled crisis—one significant enough to pressure Western allies to reconsider or scale back military support for Ukraine, while avoiding a direct, large-scale confrontation with NATO.

The strategy would aim to strain cohesion within the Alliance and strengthen Moscow’s negotiating position without crossing the threshold into open conflict.

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(con fonte AdnKronos)