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What the new Syria will look like: between promises of stability and international challenges

The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham reassures the international community, while Israel, Russia and the United States cautiously observe the Syrian political transition

After the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria is preparing for a new phase of dialogue and reconstruction. Mohammed al-Jawlani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, sought to reassure the international community, stating that ‘the world has nothing to fear’ from the new Syria. Interviewed by Sky News, al-Jawlani said that the fear was linked to the Assad regime, Iranian militias and Hezbollah, which were responsible for the massacres in recent years. Now, according to the rebel leader, the country is moving towards stability and development, leaving behind the chaos of war.

The political transition and the promise of stability

The interim Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Bashir, appointed to lead the country during the transition phase, promised a period of ‘calm and stability’ for the Syrian population. In an interview with al-Jazeera, al-Bashir said that after 13 years of conflict, the time has come to enjoy peace. The transitional government will last three months, until March, and will focus on the creation of a new constitutional order. Al-Bashir also announced that he had met with members of Assad’s former government to ensure a smooth transition and facilitate the reconstruction of the country.

Israel and its warning to the new Syria

On the international front, Israel expressed its concerns and set clear limits. Defence Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel will not allow terrorist entities to threaten the country from Syria’s borders and warned that those who follow in Assad’s footsteps ‘will end up like him’. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed a more relaxed attitude, stating that Israel is willing to establish diplomatic relations with the new Syrian regime. Nevertheless, he warned that any connivance with Iran, especially if aimed at arms transfers, will have serious consequences.

Israeli air strikes and the military response

In recent days, the Israeli army has intensified its attacks in Syria, conducting over 480 air raids against strategic targets. These include military ships, anti-aircraft batteries, and weapons production sites. The operation, aimed at preventing these weapons from falling into the hands of terrorist groups, had a significant impact on Syrian military capabilities. Minister Katz confirmed that the Israeli army destroyed a large part of the Syrian fleet, highlighting Israel’s commitment to maintaining national security.

The US and the future of relations with Syria

The US is in a delicate position. Outgoing President Joe Biden has shown willingness to cooperate with the new Syrian leadership, while former President Donald Trump has spoken out against any American involvement in the Syrian conflict. For now, US troops present in Syria will not be withdrawn. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer explained that the troops are there with a clear objective: to fight ISIS. This commitment, which has now lasted for over a decade, will not cease in the short term.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: towards removal from the list of terrorist organisations?

A sensitive issue concerns the future of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. According to sources reported by Politico, there is an ongoing debate in the Biden Administration about the possible removal of HTS from the list of terrorist organisations. Some officials claim that the group has shown signs of moderation, but a final decision will require lengthy internal deliberations. No president wants to be seen as revoking the designation of a terrorist group without proper safeguards. At the moment, the State Department has made it clear that no official review of HTS’s status is underway, although diplomatic contacts with the group are not excluded.

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