Ukraine war, Putin dictates conditions for peace: Trump called to mediate

The Kremlin is banking on a comprehensive agreement involving security, Europe and the Middle East. The US president-elect will be decisive in the negotiations

Vladimir Putin intends to set conditions for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, sending a clear message to Kiev and the United States. At the centre of attention is Donald Trump, soon to take office in the White House, who could take a central role in future peace negotiations.

According to the Kremlin, a resolution of the conflict, which has now lasted almost 1,000 days, will necessarily have to include guarantees for Russia’s security and a restructuring of the global order. The approach was made explicit by Konstantin Malofeyev, a businessman close to the Russian government, in an interview with the Financial Times. ‘A peace plan that does not take Russian security into account will inevitably fail,’ said Malofeyev, stressing that Trump will have a unique opportunity to leave a historical mark.

Moscow’s demands

Moscow’s conditions include a number of key measures:

• Restrictions on Kiev’s use of US-supplied Atacms missiles to hit Russian strategic targets.
• Pressure on Zelensky to leave office as president, paving the way for new leaders more inclined to dialogue.
• Wide-ranging discussions involving not only Ukraine, but also issues relating to Europe, the Middle East and China.

Malofeyev warned that in the absence of a comprehensive agreement, Russia might consider the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, an escalation that would turn the conflict into a global catastrophe.

Trump’s role

The President-elect of the United States, who will officially take office in January, has repeatedly expressed his intention to favour a rapid diplomatic solution to the war. According to analyses by the Warsaw-based Centre for Oriental Studies, Trump’s strategy will include:

• An immediate ceasefire as a starting point for direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev.
• Ukraine’s neutrality for at least 10 years, with a postponement of NATO entry.
• The continuation of military aid to Kiev, conditional, however, on participation in a peace process.

In this scenario, Ukraine would have to agree to give up, at least temporarily, regaining the territories annexed by Russia, relying on diplomatic negotiations rather than the use of force.

The geopolitical implications

Russia sees in Trump an interlocutor potentially in favour of ending Moscow’s international isolation and lifting sanctions. However, its strategy risks finding obstacles in Ukraine, where Zelensky’s government may oppose any compromise that sanctions territorial losses.

‘The war has made the Russian regime stronger,’ said Malofeyev, pointing out that the conflict has strengthened the domestic economy and consolidated popular consensus. Meanwhile, the Kremlin emphasises that Trump’s presence may be the last chance to establish a new global order.

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