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Elon Musk and Starlink: the power to turn a war on and off

The Starlink satellite system, essential for the defence of Ukraine, is in the hands of Elon Musk, who alternates between promises and threats, managing the geopolitical future between personal and strategic global interests

Starlink yes, Starlink no, with Elon Musk at the helm of a system that not only ensures Ukraine’s vital communications during the war against Russia, but could also affect the future security of many European countries, including Italy. Musk, with his unmistakable style, launches hypotheses on a possible shutdown of the system and then withdraws them, in a game that mixes promises and threats. This behaviour reflects a very precise negotiating strategy, in which Musk exploits his de facto monopoly on SpaceX satellites to gain advantages in an increasingly delicate international context.

The question on the minds of many world leaders today is: what would happen if Musk decided to shut down Starlink in Ukraine? The question is not only technological but political. Musk uses his dominant position to constantly remind his allies that Starlink is an arbitrary concession, and as such can be revoked. The billionaire makes it clear that gratitude and political alignment are indispensable to maintain this support. It applies to Ukrainian President Zelensky and it also applies to Poland, which could see its access to the satellite system compromised in the event of a protest.

Musk is not alone in this tactic: US President Donald Trump takes a similar approach in all the hot dossiers of international politics. From the war in Ukraine to the mediation between Putin and Zelensky, from ambitions over Greenland and Panama to the trade war with China, Trump uses a logic of promises and retaliation, alternating between rewards and threats according to his political and strategic priorities.

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In this context, the decision to work with Musk or Trump requires the countries and actors involved to come to terms with a very clear reality: whoever controls the negotiating power also controls the conditions. If interests coincide, the benefits are obvious, but when objectives diverge, the consequences can be devastating. And what is at stake is not just the future of Ukraine, but the security and stability of an entire region, which now looks with awe at the growing influence of figures such as Musk and Trump, who have no qualms about bringing their commercial and political clout to bear.

With the Starlink system at the centre of the battle, Elon Musk transforms himself from a simple entrepreneur into the director of an uncertain future, in which diplomacy and technology become intertwined, and the line between strategic negotiation and political manipulation becomes ever thinner.

Europe, as well as other global players, will have to figure out how to navigate these turbulent waters, between satellites, vested interests and a war that continues to shape the destiny of nations.

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