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The evolution of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Hts) in Syria

From taxes to military strategy via education: a detailed analysis of the Hts government in Idlib and the possible implications for a post-Assad Syria

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Hts), an initially jihadist group, has ruled Idlib with pragmatism and discipline. Studying their governance model, clues emerge about a possible export of their approach to a post-Assad Syria. This article explores in detail the economic, military and social strategies adopted by Hts.

Taxes and Economic Strategy

According to Mark Nakhla of Kharon, Hts represents an example of economic adaptability during conflict. The group has evolved its economic strategy from foreign donor support to a model based on taxes and other forms of government revenue. Taxes on goods and businesses, together with customs duties, provided the main sources of revenue.

Controlling Idlib: Taxes and Governance

Hts imposed taxes on agricultural products and goods in transit, and operated monopolies on essential services such as fuel and electricity. The ‘Syrian salvation government’ established by Hts has demonstrated a degree of administrative stability and capacity to manage public finances, similar to that of a conventional government.

The Impact on the Population: Services and Education

Despite criticism for authoritarian methods, Hts established a civil authority consisting of 11 ministries and introduced some moderate Islamic practices. Free Koranic schools, along with subjects such as mathematics and English, were an example of the group’s educational approach.

Military Strategy and Security

Hts maintained an internal security force to deal with other armed factions and internal criticism. The group has also abandoned extremist methods such as suicide bombings, showing a transition to a structure more similar to that of a conventional army. Experts estimate that Hts fighters number between 10,000 and 60,000.

The Abandonment of the Global Jihad

Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, known as Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, focused the ideology of Hts on the battle against the Assad regime, abandoning global jihad. The creation of a ‘Military School’ in 2021, with ex-Assad officers to train fighters, marked an important step in the group’s transformation.

Weapons and External Support

Hts weapons were largely taken from Assad’s forces or purchased from corrupt regime officials. Turkey provided additional resources, including vehicles and small arms. In addition, Hts has shown ingenuity in the manufacture of drones and rudimentary armoured vehicles.

Hts will have to consolidate control over several rebel forces, demonstrate political inclusiveness and allay concerns of possible post-Assad absolute rule. The future of their national governance model remains uncertain, but developments in Idlib offer an interesting picture of the potential dynamics in a post-conflict Syria.

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