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France: Barnier government seriously risks no-retrust

The French Prime Minister warns of financial risks while Macron assesses possible scenarios if the executive falls

France is on the brink of a political crisis as the government led by Michel Barnier prepares to face a no-confidence vote. The prime minister, a guest tonight on the 8pm newscasts on Tf1 and France 2, warned of the risks of ‘serious financial turmoil’ in the event of a failure to pass the budget law and a consequent fall of the executive. A warning that is reflected in the signals already coming from the markets.

The Rassemblement National (Rn) and the Nouveau Front Populaire (Nfp), by joining forces, could have the necessary numbers to challenge the government. In that case, President Emmanuel Macron would face a complex situation, with limited options due to the constitutional ban on dissolving parliament before June 2025, having already exercised this prerogative last June.

The options on the table for Macron

Among the possible choices, the president could confirm Michel Barnier as prime minister, but this hypothesis seems unlikely as it would risk being perceived as a provocation by Parliament. More plausible is the hypothesis of trying to build a new, more stable and inclusive parliamentary coalition.

Another route would be to appoint a technical government with the task of running the administration for a limited period, six months for example, while waiting for new political solutions. Finally, the most drastic eventuality: Macron could resign, paving the way for new presidential and parliamentary elections, an option that is nevertheless considered remote by analysts.

No risk of shutdown

Unlike the United States, France does not risk a total administrative shutdown. In fact, its Constitution allows the government, even under interim rule, to pass an emergency law extending the previous year’s budget, guaranteeing the payment of civil servants and the continuity of essential services.

While the decisive vote is awaited, the political climate in Paris remains incandescent, with the fate of the Barnier government hanging by a thread and uncertainties looming over the future of the executive and the Macron presidency.

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