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Conclave 2025: starting on 7 May, but duration remains uncertain

In modern history the election of the Pope takes place in a few days, but the time will depend on the number of ballots needed to reach two-thirds of the votes

The conclave for the election of the new Pope will officially begin on 7 May 2025. But how long will it last? The answer is not simple: the duration of a conclave is not fixed and depends solely on the time required for one of the cardinal electors to obtain a qualified two-thirds majority. In contemporary times, however, papal elections have generally been resolved within four or five days.

Among the shortest conclaves in history is the one that elected Benedict XVI in 2005, which ended in just 26 hours with only 4 ballots. Slightly longer was the one that brought Pope Francis to the papal throne in 2013, elected after 5 ballots in around 36 hours. But the absolute record for speed dates back to 1503: Julius II was elected in less than 10 hours, in the night between 31 October and 1 November, immediately after the death of Pius III.

In contrast, the longest conclave in history lasted 2 years and 9 months, from 1268 to 1271, and took place in Viterbo. To unblock the situation, it required the intervention of the Holy Roman Emperor and extreme measures by the local authorities, such as the reduction of food and the removal of the roof of the palace housing the cardinals. The election of Pope Gregory X led to the reform of the electoral process with the introduction of compulsory enclosure, from which the term conclave (‘cum clave’, locked) derives.

In the 20th century, conclaves were held relatively quickly. Pius X was elected in three days in 1903, as was John XXIII in 1958 and Paul VI in 1963. John Paul I, in 1978, was elected in only two days, while the conclave that led to Karol Wojtyła, John Paul II, lasted four days.

Although no one can predict how long the conclave of 2025 will last, recent history suggests a swift conclusion. Much will depend on the internal balances within the College of Cardinals and the ability to converge on a name quickly.

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