Khamenei fears a fate similar to Maduro, Iran expert explains current risks

Analyst warns the Iranian Supreme Leader prioritizes martyrdom over fleeing, despite U.S. threats

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is reportedly facing what analysts call his worst-case scenario, with Khamenei fears a fate similar to Maduro after the former Venezuelan president was captured by U.S. forces and detained in Brooklyn. However, experts stress it is “highly unlikely” that Khamenei would follow the example of Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria in December 2024, boarding a plane to Russia. Farian Sabahi, associate professor of Contemporary History at the University of Insubria, explains that Khamenei, now 86, has dedicated his life to defending the Islamic Republic and is more likely to embrace martyrdom, seeking historical recognition akin to Imam Hossein in 680 A.D., rather than fleeing.

Unlike Maduro, Khamenei can still rely on the loyalty of his inner circle and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, though there have been infiltrations such as the deadly June attack on the Pasdaran, allegedly orchestrated by foreign intelligence. “It is possible the U.S. may attempt an operation, and that represents Khamenei’s current nightmare,” Sabahi adds. During the brief 12-day conflict with Israel in June, the Supreme Leader reportedly remained secluded in a bunker, reflecting the sensitivity with which he views security threats.

Sabahi notes that Iran differs fundamentally from Venezuela. “For the Americans, reaching Tehran is far more complicated than reaching Caracas,” she says. The June conflict also discouraged public support in Iran for foreign military interventions. Regarding recent protests, which reignited on December 28 over rising living costs and spread among university students and other civil sectors, Sabahi emphasizes that the demonstrations currently lack a clear leadership. She also warns that information coming from opposition media is difficult to verify given the absence of Western journalists in Iran.

The analyst contextualizes Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last Shah, who left Iran at 16 for military training in the United States. While Pahlavi claims willingness to lead a democratic transition, he has no plans to permanently return to Iran, citing strong family ties in the U.S. His name evokes both the historic Persian monarchy and the social inequalities, secret police abuses, and Western influence associated with the Shah’s era.

Finally, the threat of additional Israeli bombings looms over Iran, with prior attacks in June temporarily uniting the population behind the regime. Sabahi notes that while U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have publicly threatened military action in coordination with the potential targeting of protesters, such interventions are viewed skeptically within Iran. Past strikes have destroyed entire neighborhoods in Tehran and critical fuel depots, reinforcing fears that direct military measures would provoke more unity among Iranians rather than weaken the regime.

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