Governors, Not Congress, May Hold the Biggest Prize of the Midterms

Thirty-six states are electing governors, and the results could shape far more than local politics. With Democrats eyeing gains in a handful of unexpected battlegrounds, the contests will help determine who oversees key policy fights and election rules through the next presidential cycle

The headlines may be focused on Congress, but some of the most consequential power shifts of the midterm elections are unfolding hundreds of miles from Washington.

Voters in 36 states are choosing governors this year, a sprawling contest that has evolved into one of the most important battlegrounds of the election cycle. Democrats enter Election Day with a realistic path to capturing a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010, a prospect that appeared unlikely only a few years ago. Republicans currently control 26 governor’s mansions to Democrats’ 24, but a political environment that has turned increasingly challenging for President Donald Trump has transformed races once considered routine into genuine contests.

The stakes extend well beyond state borders. Governors influence policy on immigration, abortion, health care, education and taxation. They also play a major role in election administration, making this year’s victors likely figures in the political and legal battles that will accompany the 2028 presidential campaign. In an era when control of state governments has become a critical source of political power, the fight for governorships has become nearly as significant as the fight for Capitol Hill.

No state better illustrates the shifting political landscape than Georgia. After more than two decades of Republican control, Democrats believe they have a rare opening in one of the nation’s premier battlegrounds. With term limits preventing Gov. Brian Kemp from seeking reelection, the race has become a closely watched contest between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican businessman Rick Jackson. The billionaire candidate secured the GOP nomination despite opposition from Trump-backed forces and poured more than $100 million of his own money into the campaign. Polls suggest a dead heat. A Democratic victory would end 23 years of Republican control and make Bottoms the first Black woman ever elected governor in the United States.

Ohio offers a different kind of warning sign for Republicans. Once the country’s quintessential swing state, it has moved steadily toward the GOP in recent years, culminating in Trump’s 11-point victory there in 2024. Yet the governor’s race has become unexpectedly competitive. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, backed by Trump, finds himself locked in a tight contest with Democrat Amy Acton, the former state health director who became a prominent figure during the Covid-19 pandemic. Rising living costs, health care concerns and anxiety over the economic effects of the war in Iran have complicated what many Republicans expected to be a straightforward race. Polling averages now show Acton with a narrow lead.

If Ohio is surprising, Alaska may be even more remarkable.

The state has not elected a Democratic governor since Tony Knowles left office in 2002, yet Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has emerged as a credible contender in a race fractured by Republican divisions. Bernadette Wilson, backed by Trump, shares the ballot with former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former Attorney General Treg Taylor, creating the possibility that Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system could amplify conservative fragmentation. Recognizing the danger, Trump has urged Republicans to unite behind a single candidate. Political analysts now rate the contest as leaning Democratic, an extraordinary development in one of the country’s most reliably Republican states.

Elsewhere across the Midwest, Democrats are testing Republican advantages that once appeared secure. Iowa has emerged as a promising opportunity for Democrat Rob Sand, who is seeking to return his party to power in a state that has shifted decisively rightward in recent election cycles. Neighboring Kansas has become another unexpected battleground after analysts moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. Either victory would represent a significant upset in states carried comfortably by Trump just two years ago.

Texas remains a more difficult challenge, but Republicans are paying closer attention than they would prefer. Gov. Greg Abbott is pursuing a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who hopes to end a Republican hold on the governor’s office that dates back to George W. Bush’s victory over Ann Richards in 1994. Polls continue to place Abbott ahead, though by margins narrow enough to keep Democrats engaged in a state many still view as an eventual battleground.

Not all of the pressure is on Republicans. Democrats must also defend a series of governorships that have become central to their national coalition.

In Oregon, Gov. Tina Kotek faces a strong challenge from Republican Christine Drazan in a state Democrats have controlled for nearly four decades. In Michigan, Democrat Jocelyn Benson is attempting to succeed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer while fending off Republican John James and navigating the unpredictable influence of independent candidate Mike Duggan. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking another term amid fierce debates over border security, immigration and the cost of living. While Democrats retain advantages in all three states, none of the races is viewed as entirely secure.

New Mexico, meanwhile, could deliver one of the most historic outcomes of the election cycle. Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is positioned to become the first Native American woman elected governor in U.S. history. Polling shows her holding a clear advantage over Republican Gregg Hull, and her candidacy has generated considerable enthusiasm among Indigenous communities across the state.

Nevada may ultimately offer the clearest snapshot of the national mood. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford are running nearly even in a state where elections are frequently decided by razor-thin margins. Housing costs, economic growth and funding for public services have dominated the campaign, and the result could signal whether Democrats can continue consolidating strength in one of the country’s most competitive states.

The battle for governorships rarely commands the same attention as the fight for Congress. This year, however, it may offer the clearest measure of where political power is heading. The officials elected on Tuesday will not simply govern their states. They will help shape the policy debates, electoral rules and political landscape that define the next chapter of American politics.

(Photo: © AndKronos)