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US-Ukraine agreement on rare earths: Putin loses credibility and Trump changes course

Trump and Zelensky sign a strategic understanding that strengthens ties between Washington and Kiev, while the Kremlin sees the possibility of a favourable understanding with the US fade away

After months of tensions, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky have re-established relations with a strategic pact on rare earths, marking a geopolitical turning point that alarms Moscow. The understanding, which came about after the historic meeting in the Vatican on 26 April, gives the US access to valuable Ukrainian mineral resources, while Kiev secures a stable alliance with the White House.

Trump offers territory, Moscow bombs: peace deal blows up

In recent weeks, Trump had attempted a mediation with Moscow: according to confidential sources, special envoy Steve Witkoff had proposed to Russia the recognition of vast Ukrainian areas already occupied – Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk and the Crimea – in exchange for a peace agreement.

However, continued Russian shelling of civilians has undermined any opening. ‘I don’t know if Putin really wants an end to the war, maybe he’s playing me,’ Trump declared. Hence the abrupt turn: an end to ambiguities, and full openness towards Zelensky.

Moscow displaced, Witkoff under indictment: America distances itself from the Kremlin

The Kremlin now finds itself isolated, with Witkoff himself considered increasingly weak in the Trump administration. The diplomat is accused of excessive alignment with Russian demands and of running the dialogue without a diplomatic team at the table, fuelling internal criticism within the White House.

‘Putin understands that he needs to be more cooperative,’ a Russian source told the Washington Post, concerned about the possibility of new secondary sanctions that could hit energy traders with Moscow hard.

From quarrel to new understanding: Trump and Zelensky, chapter two

The frost between Washington and Kiev seemed irremediable after the resounding quarrel on 28 February at the White House. Back then, Trump called Zelensky ‘a man with no cards in his hand’. Now, the harmony is clear: Trump rejects Putin’s proposed truce on 8-11 May (‘too little’) and espouses the Ukrainian line.

A change that is redefining the international framework, making Ukraine increasingly central to US strategy in Eastern Europe.

Economic concerns hold back the Kremlin

Meanwhile, concern is growing in Russia about the economic impact of the sanctions. Deficits are rising, banks are under pressure, inflation is rising and living standards are falling. Some sectors of the establishment are suggesting a softening of the line to ease international restrictions, but hawks are pushing Putin to continue the war, fearing that a truce will give Ukraine time to strengthen.

‘We are paying a high price,’ admits a Russian source. And the risk now is that Trump is no longer willing to discount.

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