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Ukraine: Trump announces progress but Kiev and Moscow are far apart on territory

US president declares truce between Russia and Ukraine close, but territorial concessions remain a crucial knot

Donald Trump, current president of the United States, announced major progress in the truce negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. ‘We have the outlines of an agreement,’ said Trump, convinced that a ceasefire will be imminent. However, the sensitive issue of territorial concessions remains unresolved, particularly regarding Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.

The Crimea node and Putin’s position

Crimea has long been at the centre of the dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has reiterated that the peninsula, strategic for control of the Black Sea, is Russian territory and will never be the subject of negotiations. The 2014 annexation, according to the Russian president, healed a historical injustice dating back to 1954, when Crimea was ceded to Ukraine. Moscow has since turned the region into a military stronghold, making its eventual reconquest by Ukraine complex.

Recently, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that Putin had expressed a willingness to obtain formal US recognition not only of Crimea, but also of the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which were occupied during the 2022 conflict. The Russian leader reportedly suggested to Trump that such recognition might push Russia to give up further territorial claims, such as the city of Odessa.

Zelensky and the goal of retaking Crimea

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, has repeatedly emphasised that Crimea must return under Kiev’s control as a precondition for a peace agreement. Ukraine considers the 2014 annexation an illegitimate aggression and has conducted several targeted attacks in the region to weaken Russian defences.

During a press conference in Oslo, Zelensky also dismissed rumours about possible territorial concessions that emerged in a recent phone call he had with Trump. ‘Crimea is a Ukrainian peninsula, and Trump has never discussed ceding it to me,’ the Ukrainian leader stated. Zelensky also pointed out that under Russian control Crimea is in decline, while with a return to Kiev an economic development plan could be initiated.

Trump considers recognition of Russian Crimea

Sources reported by Semafor indicate that the Trump administration is reportedly considering recognising Crimea as part of Russia in an attempt to facilitate a peace agreement. This move would mark a significant shift in US policy, aligning Washington’s position with that of Moscow’s allies such as North Korea, Syria and Venezuela.

However, the international community has always rejected the Russian annexation of Crimea. The UN has repeatedly reaffirmed, through various resolutions, the principle of Ukrainian territorial integrity, and the European Union has maintained a firm line on this point.

The role of China and the prospect of a global agreement

An element that could further complicate the picture is the role of China. Although Beijing has never officially recognised the annexation of Crimea, it has always abstained from UN votes condemning the Russian action. Should Trump succeed in bringing both Putin and Xi Jinping to an agreement, it would be difficult to foresee a positive outcome for Zelensky and his vision of the conflict.

Trump’s proposed peace plan seems likely to meet with a lot of resistance, but the possibility of an agreement involving China could drastically change the geopolitical balance in the region.

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