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Oil price above $71 amid tensions in the Middle East
Oil price rises due to US-Iran tensions: Brent rises to $71.30 per barrel as markets fear a prolonged conflict and a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Markets on alert for risk of conflict – Oil prices are rising significantly as the risk of a large-scale US attack on Iran grows. Markets are already pricing in the possibility of a prolonged conflict, as opposed to a limited operation.
Brent crude rose to around $71.30 per barrel, approaching its record high for the year of $71.89. The increase reflects the possibility that oil could become a tool of retaliation for Tehran.
The strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz
At the center of concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, a 50-kilometer-wide passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Control of this strait would allow the transit of oil tankers to be blocked.
Thirty percent of oil transported by sea passes through this route, accounting for one-fifth of global production. In addition, approximately 20% of LNG shipments pass through it, which has become a central resource for Western countries after the war in Ukraine and the reduction in Russian gas exports.
A closure of the strait would be a particularly effective retaliation, but also costly for the Iranian economy itself.
Fears fueled by rumors and military maneuvers
Tensions are heightened by reports that Donald Trump intends to launch a “massive” military campaign against Iran, lasting several weeks and comparable to a full-scale war.
Meanwhile, joint naval exercises between Russia, China, and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz send a signal to the United States. The presence of Russian and Chinese warships in the area increases the risk of accidents and complicates any American military plans.
Oil at the center of geopolitical balances
Oil is one of the main factors linking Russia and China to Iran. In the event of a prolonged conflict, Iran’s ability to use the blockade of energy routes as strategic leverage could amplify the global economic consequences.
It is this prospect that is driving up oil prices, as markets assess a scenario of prolonged instability in the Persian Gulf.
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