France Sees a Covid Uptick, but Experts Say Europe Is Not Facing a New Crisis

French surveillance data show a rise in infections from very low levels, while a fragmented mix of SARS-CoV-2 variants continues to circulate across Europe and beyond

After months largely absent from headlines, Covid-19 is beginning to attract renewed attention across Europe following a noticeable increase in reported cases in France. Yet despite the recent uptick, the broader picture remains far removed from the large, synchronized waves that once dominated the pandemic years.

According to Federico Gueli, the Italian researcher known for tracking the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants long after large-scale testing and sequencing programs faded, French surveillance networks are indeed reporting higher case numbers compared with the previous week. The increase, however, is unfolding against a backdrop of exceptionally low viral circulation.

Current levels in France do not exceed those recorded during the same period last year, Gueli noted, adding that the trend should be viewed within the context of seasonal respiratory virus activity and the reopening of schools. The assessment extends beyond France. Italy is seeing a similar pattern, and there is currently no indication of a broader public-health alarm.

The reason today’s landscape differs markedly from the period before 2024 lies largely in the virus’s increasingly fragmented evolutionary path.

The World Health Organization currently lists four variants under monitoring: the recombinant XFG, the recombinant NB.1.8.1, BA.3.2, and the more recently designated PQ.16.1.1. The latter, which emerged in China as a descendant of NB.1.8.1, generated significant epidemic waves across several Asian regions, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and parts of South Korea.

Driven in part by its key D420N mutation, PQ.16.1.1 rapidly displaced competing variants and became dominant across multiple Asian markets, contributing to a wave that peaked from mid- to late summer before beginning to recede. Yet once the variant spread into Europe, the United States and Oceania, it failed to demonstrate the same competitive advantage.

Gueli believes the explanation may lie in differing immunity profiles. In many Asian countries, early vaccination strategies, stricter lockdown measures and distinct population exposure histories produced an immune landscape unlike that found in Western nations, where immunity increasingly reflects a combination of natural infection and mRNA vaccination. As a result, the variant’s apparent immune-evasion advantages may have proven more geographically specific than universal.

The broader global trend since spring 2025 has been notable not for the emergence of a dominant strain, but for the absence of one.

Following the worldwide expansion of XFG and NB.1.8.1, no variant has managed to achieve clear global supremacy. Instead, different regions have developed their own local leaders, creating a patchwork of competing lineages. In that environment, BA.3.2, a South African variant that had once appeared close to extinction, began gaining traction across Europe, Australia and Oceania during the past winter.

Gueli said BA.3.2 appears to have a stronger ability to infect children, affecting a key reservoir for respiratory-virus transmission. That shift increased evolutionary pressure on competing variants. NB.1.8.1 gave way in part to its descendant PQ.16.1.1, while XFG evolved into newer versions carrying three, five or more additional mutations in the Spike protein.

Many of the variants now circulating have acquired a handful of mutations beyond their predecessors, changes that likely improve immune evasion. Yet those same alterations may come with trade-offs. Gueli argues that today’s variants appear less capable of generating the massive super-spreading events once associated with Covid outbreaks, a consequence of both accumulated population immunity and the virus’s evolving mutation patterns.

Public-health reports reflect that complexity. Many successful subvariants have remained highly localized, making them difficult to track consistently. The overall result is a remarkably fragmented epidemiological landscape in which different countries are dealing with different variants at the same time.

The virus, Gueli said, no longer appears capable of rapidly securing the kinds of transformative mutations that would allow a single lineage to infect vast portions of the population in a short period. Since 2024, the world has not experienced truly global Covid waves. Some countries have recorded localized peaks, while others have gone as long as a year without significant surges.

That does not mean the virus has become irrelevant. Several Asian countries have continued to experience substantial outbreaks, including hospitalizations and deaths, although the scale remains below levels seen before 2024. From a medical perspective, understanding which variants are circulating remains important. In broader epidemiological terms, however, the recent increases are neither exceptional nor explosive.

Europe’s current situation remains difficult to define with precision, largely because sequencing data have become increasingly scarce.

Spain now provides much of the continent’s sequencing output and is experiencing a wave that has attracted relatively little public attention. Smaller increases are also being observed in France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland and the United Kingdom, where circulation appears to be at an earlier stage.

Several variants dominate the European picture. Among them are TA.1 and TK.1, both descendants of XFG. Although they carry multiple mutations, there is no evidence suggesting greater severity. Spain has also drawn attention because of ST.1, another XFG-derived lineage distinguished by mutations outside the Spike protein. Such mutations do not typically produce significant epidemiological effects, making the variant’s relative success somewhat unexpected. It has not yet been extensively studied and currently does not appear to pose an elevated risk.

The variant attracting the closest scrutiny, however, is PJ.2.1.

Gueli describes it as a new “saltation” variant, meaning it emerged suddenly after accumulating an unusually large number of mutations. Researchers were able to trace its development from the very first documented patient, an uncommon opportunity that provided insight into its evolutionary pathway.

The story began with a chronically infected patient in an Ontario hospital who was being monitored by researcher Ryan Hisner beginning in late 2025. Repeated positive tests revealed that the same variant was continuing to evolve within the patient. Over time, PJ.2.1 accumulated roughly 20 mutations.

Starting in January, the variant appeared to circulate at low levels, likely through hospital-associated infections. By May, it had begun spreading within the wider community. Later, possibly aided by travel linked to the World Cup held in the Americas, PJ.2.1 was detected in New York.

Wastewater sequencing subsequently showed the lineage spreading across the United States, initially at modest levels before becoming more noticeable in September. The variant has since been detected elsewhere, including Colombia, Cuba, Spain, the Netherlands, England, Australia and Singapore.

Although PJ.2.1 is expanding geographically, its growth has not resembled the explosive rises seen with earlier pandemic-era variants. Even so, its prevalence continues to increase wherever it establishes a foothold.

Two years ago, such behavior might have been enough to predict eventual dominance. Gueli cautions that the current environment is far more complex. Nevertheless, the timing is noteworthy. If PJ.2.1 reaches around 10% prevalence in September, it could encounter a substantially larger pool of susceptible hosts during the peak winter transmission season.

Leading Covid variant researcher Yunlong Cao has already examined the lineage. His analysis suggests PJ.2.1 is not significantly better at evading immunity than competing variants, but it does appear to possess stronger binding capacity to human cells. That characteristic could become more consequential if future evolutionary changes allow the variant to maintain a favorable balance between transmissibility and other viral traits.

For now, Gueli argues, PJ.2.1 merits close monitoring but should not be linked to the recent increase in French cases. Nor is there evidence tying it to the latest growth observed in Italy, particularly in Lombardy, Veneto, Lazio and Campania, regions that have often been among the first to register the arrival of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

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