Flavio Bolsonaro Shocks Brazil, Overtakes Lula and Turns Presidential Race Upside Down

The son of former president Jair Bolsonaro outperformed expectations and emerged as the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential election, forcing Lula into a runoff that now looks far more uncertain than polls had suggested

Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the opening round of Brazil’s presidential election with 47.03% of the vote, more than 56 million ballots, while incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received 45.16%, or nearly 54 million votes. The gap between the two candidates stood at just over two million votes, sending the race to a runoff on October 25 after neither candidate secured the majority required for an outright victory.

The remaining candidates all failed to reach 3% individually and together accounted for roughly 12% of the vote. Null ballots represented 2.93%, blank ballots 1.84%, while voter turnout approached 79%.

The result also delivered a series of strong parliamentary victories for conservative candidates, dealing a significant setback to Lula and his Workers’ Party. At nearly 81 years old, the president is seeking a fourth term and a chance to further cement a political legacy that has shaped Brazilian politics for decades.

Should Flávio Bolsonaro prevail in the runoff, Brazil would join a broader rightward shift seen in several recent elections across Latin America, a trend supported by U.S. President Donald Trump. Throughout the campaign, Lula framed the election as a choice between democracy and what he described as “barbarism,” arguing that Brazil’s sovereignty was at risk from external pressure coming from the United States.

The Political Succession of Jair Bolsonaro

Until a few months ago, Flávio Bolsonaro remained a relatively low-profile figure outside political circles. His candidacy gained national significance after his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, identified him as his political successor. The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence following his conviction over the attempted coup that followed the 2022 presidential election.

The Bolsonaro name proved enough to mobilize conservative voters and push Flávio ahead of Lula despite a campaign marked by controversy, accusations and fierce political attacks from both sides.

“I’m very happy with the result,” Bolsonaro told reporters after the vote count was completed, describing the runoff as a “very real possibility” to win the presidency.

The election also exposed the depth of Brazil’s political polarization. After years of confrontation between the country’s dominant political camps, many voters appeared less motivated by enthusiasm than by opposition to the alternative.

Lula sought to minimize the significance of the first-round result and reminded supporters of his long history of runoff campaigns.

“I would have liked to win in the first round, but it wouldn’t have been the first time I thought that,” Lula said, recalling previous presidential races in 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006, as well as campaigns involving Dilma Rousseff, Fernando Haddad and his own unsuccessful bid in 2018.

“Do you know why it didn’t happen? Because people like to see me compete in a runoff. And I’m very good in head-to-head contests,” Lula added.

The president said the second round would provide an opportunity to show “the real face of today’s Brazil and what we want for the future.”

Netanyahu Welcomes Bolsonaro’s First-Round Victory

Among the first international leaders to react was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who welcomed Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round victory and expressed hope that the conservative candidate would prevail in the October 25 runoff.

“I look forward to restoring the extraordinary friendship between Israel and Brazil. Best wishes for your great victory, my friend,” Netanyahu wrote in a message posted on X.

His statement highlighted the international attention surrounding Brazil’s election and the potential foreign policy implications of a Bolsonaro victory in the second round.

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(Photo: © AndKronos)