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Sweden warns Russia could seize Baltic island to test NATO unity

Swedish defence chief Michael Claesson says Moscow may attempt limited territorial moves in the Baltic Sea to probe NATO’s political cohesion, amid rising regional tensions

Russia could occupy a Baltic Sea island “at any time” in an effort to test NATO’s cohesion, according to Sweden’s Chief of Defence Staff Michael Claesson, who said Stockholm is preparing for such a scenario.

In an interview with The Times, Claesson warned that such a move would be designed to expose divisions within the alliance, particularly at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled the possibility of distancing Washington from European partners.

“I think it is important to stress that we must remain vigilant and deter Russia from this kind of adventure through our presence in strategically relevant areas in the North and of course in the Baltic Sea,” Claesson said.

He added that European defence planners are increasingly concerned about the risk of escalation at sea, particularly in the Baltic region, where Russian forces have reportedly begun regularly escorting commercial vessels linked to what is described as the “shadow fleet.”

NATO forces have carried out frequent exercises simulating potential Russian landings on strategically important islands in the area, including Gotland in Sweden, Bornholm in Denmark, and Hiiumaa and Saaremaa in Estonia. However, Claesson noted that the Baltic Sea contains around 400,000 islands, giving Moscow a wide range of possible targets.

“I believe it is possible to achieve the objective of challenging the alliance by positioning on almost any of them,” he said, adding that a large-scale operation would not be necessary. “It is enough to send a signal and wait to see what happens politically.”

Claesson also said a potential end to the war in Ukraine could allow Russia to reallocate resources toward NATO’s eastern flank, potentially in preparation for further military confrontation.

“I do not exclude that they are preparing for some form of military confrontation aimed at restoring a geopolitical reach reminiscent of the old Russian empire, perhaps even the Soviet Union,” he added.

The Baltic Sea has already seen heightened tensions in recent months, with incidents involving Sweden—now a NATO member since 2024—and Russia. One such episode cited by The Times involved the reported downing of a Russian drone approaching the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, docked in Malmö in February.

According to the report, Moscow has increased security measures around vessels linked to its shadow fleet, including military escorts by aircraft and frigates.

Sweden has also intensified maritime surveillance. In recent weeks, the Swedish Coast Guard has boarded three vessels suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet.

“Maintaining law and order at sea is certainly an ambition,” Claesson said, adding that environmental risks are also a concern, citing unsafe vessels, poor maintenance, and untrained crews operating in the Baltic Sea.

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