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Khamenei’s death puts Putin in a difficult position, another ally ‘lost’

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader adds to a series of losses among Moscow’s foreign allies, leaving the Kremlin in a constrained position amid ongoing conflicts

A Series of Losses for the Kremlin – The Khamenei death marks the latest setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who in the past year and a half has seen several key foreign allies fall. After Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now gone, further weakening Moscow’s external partnerships while Russia remains heavily engaged in the war in Ukraine.

So far, Putin has responded with a letter of condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, describing Khamenei as “an outstanding statesman who made an immense personal contribution to the development of friendly relations between Russia and Iran.” While condemning what he called a “cynical violation” of “morality and international law,” Russian authorities have not announced any concrete assistance to Tehran in response to continued U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.

According to Moscow, it was Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi who contacted his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov at the start of the attacks.

A Difficult Position for Putin

Russian analyst Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Center described the Khamenei death as placing Putin in a “difficult situation.” Since Donald Trump’s re-election, Putin has sought to gain favor with Washington in negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The January 3 capture of Nicolas Maduro by U.S. authorities had already marked the loss of another Moscow partner, leaving the Kremlin unable to intervene effectively.

“For the second time in two months, Putin failed to play the role of savior,” Baunov wrote on his Telegram account. In the case of Khamenei, he added, “the killer is his friend Trump.”

Previously, Putin had managed to provide refuge to former Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 and later granted asylum to Bashar al-Assad and his family after his fall in Syria in December 2024.

Strategic Implications for Moscow

Unlike the Maduro case, Baunov argued, the Khamenei death occurred in a region Russia considers part of its own strategic sphere. He compared it to the 2011 killing of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, which he said marked “a turning point in Russian policy” and became one of the elements Putin used to justify breaking with the West.

Tehran has been among Moscow’s closest allies during the offensive in Ukraine. Kyiv and Western governments accuse Iran of supplying Russia with weapons and military technology, including Shahed drones used daily in strikes on Ukraine. Last year, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership to strengthen ties, including military cooperation.

Uncertain Consequences

Beyond the loss of a key ally, the broader consequences for Moscow remain difficult to assess. Russian lawmaker Anatoly Vasserman told the outlet MK.ru that the war could benefit Russia in the short term if it leads to a sharp rise in oil prices. However, he warned that it could pose “serious problems” for the United States and Israel in the long term if Iranian authorities “resist.”

The Khamenei death thus adds a new layer of uncertainty for the Kremlin, as Russia navigates simultaneous pressures in Ukraine and the Middle East.

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