Munich bombing: immigration back at centre of political debate in Germany

Fire and brimstone ahead of Bundestag vote

The attack in Munich, which left 36 people injured, some of them in serious condition, has reignited the debate on migration policy just days before the Bundestag elections, set for 23 February. The attacker, a 24-year-old Afghan youth, drove his car into a crowd at a trade union rally, triggering security concerns and bringing the migrant issue back to the centre of the political scene. The tension was immediately reflected during the televised debate organised by ZDF, where the main chancellor candidates answered questions from the audience.

Scholz under pressure: security as priority

The outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz was asked about the attack, with a particularly provocative question: ‘Are you not morally complicit in every single murder that has taken place so far?’ Scholz referred to the measures already taken by his government, but also expressed his concern in the face of recent events. The issue of security and the management of migrants emerged as one of the most discussed topics, raising concerns among citizens about state protection and response.

The political crisis and the alliance with the Afd

The immigration issue has fuelled a new political crisis in the Bundestag, where the Cdu has sought the support of the Afd to pass some controversial proposals. This alliance has aroused controversy, with criticism even from Angela Merkel, who has strongly contested the choice of Friedrich Merz, leader of the Cdu. The latter has repeatedly stated that he does not intend to ally with the Afd, despite the support he receives in the polls. The situation has contributed to further dividing the German political landscape, with the Cdu trying to maintain a strong position without compromising its credibility.

Election polls and the hypothesis of a red-red-green coalition

With nine days to go before the vote, the polls reveal a changing landscape. The latest poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF recorded a slight shift in preferences, with the Die Linke party gaining one percentage point to 7%. The Social Democrats (SPD) gained one point, while the Greens lost ground. The CDU remains stable at 30%, but the Afd continues to grow, standing at 20%. The rise of The Left opens up the possibility of a three-way coalition between SPD, Greens and The Left, although it would not currently have the necessary majority to govern.

Public opinion and the ‘grand coalition’ preference

Despite the emergence of the possibility of a ‘red-red-green’ coalition, the majority of the population seems to favour a grand coalition between the Cdu/Csu and the SPD, with 39% of respondents supporting this option. However, support for a coalition including the Afd is very low, with 76% of respondents opposing an alliance with the far-right party. The prospect of a coalition between Cdu/Csu and the Greens also meets with wide dissent.

Interest in the vote and the decisive issues

Interest in the Bundestag elections is at an all-time high, with 87% of respondents saying they are very or extremely interested in voting. Compared to the 2021 elections, the electorate is also more determined, with only 28% having not yet decided who they will vote for. The issues dominating the campaign are peace and security (45%) and the economy (44%), followed by social justice (39%). Climate protection, although relevant, occupies only sixth place among voters’ priorities (22%).

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