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Turkey and Israel: Strategic rivalry in Syria and what risks are involved

Tensions between Turkey and Israel are escalating in post-Assad Syria, with possible indirect clashes and differences over the management of the country’s transition

The end of the Assad era in Syria has led to a new balance of power, in which Turkey and Israel are on opposite sides. Although both are strategic allies of the United States, the two countries have a long history of tension, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. While Turkey aims to consolidate its control over Damascus, Israel fears that a Sunni Islamist axis, backed by Ankara, could pose as dangerous a strategic threat as the Shia axis, led by Iran.

Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has often expressed explicit hostility towards Israel, going so far as to describe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the ‘butcher of Gaza’. Turkey also accuses Israel of wanting to sabotage the Syrian transition, especially in the sensitive area of the Golan Heights, territory that Israel has controlled since 1967.

Turkey’s growing power in post-Assad Syria

With Assad’s exit from the scene, Turkey emerges as the dominant force in Syria. Erdogan is closer than ever to his goal of extending Turkish influence from Libya to Somalia, consolidating his position in the Arab world. However, this growing influence also raises concerns among other US allies, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan, who fear an Ankara-sponsored resurgence of political Islam.

Despite these tensions, some analysts believe that a direct confrontation between Turkey and Israel can still be avoided. Eyal Zisser, a lecturer at Tel Aviv University, points out that a Syria under Turkish influence is still a better option for Israel than one under Iranian control. However, the threat to Israel could come in the medium term from Turkish-backed Islamist groups in southern Syria.

The role of the Kurds and the implications for Turkey-Israel relations

Tensions between Turkey and Israel are further complicated by the Kurdish issue. Ankara has launched offensives against the US-allied Syrian Kurds in the northern regions of Syria. The Turkish government considers the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) a terrorist organisation, and accuses the US of indirectly supporting these groups. However, for Israel, the Syrian Kurds represent potential natural allies in the region, as stated by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar.

This divergence has led Turkey to react harshly, but experts such as former Turkish diplomat Aydın Selcen believe that a real armed conflict between the two countries is unlikely. Israel has no interest in opening a front with Turkey, especially considering that both countries are, for now, strategic winners in the region.

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